Retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) will increase 3.4%, down slightly from 4.2% in 2012 and 5.8% in 2011, according to the National Retail Federation’s 2013 economic forecast.

Consumer spending could drop by almost $200 billion next year while depressing real consumer-spending growth by 1.7% if middle-class taxes rise in response to the fiscal cliff, according to a report released Monday by a White House economic team.

According to Nielsen analyses issued Thursday, higher consumer confidence levels, increased impulse buying and consumer intent to spend more could all lead to an upside surprise in 2012 holiday spending.

Consumers’ confidence in their personal finances is returning to levels seen in first quarter 2011, according to SymphonyIRI Group’s latest MarketPulse survey, released Friday. But while confidence remains high, the same consumers remain frugal.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the United States increased 0.5% in November to 118 (baseline based on 100 in 2004), following a 0.9% increase in October, and a 0.1% increase in September, the Conference Board announced Thursday.

Consumer confidence recovered somewhat in April, though the impact of rising gasoline prices still is evident, according to data released Tuesday by the Conference Board.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index reached 70.4 in February, a three-year high from February 2008, thanks to growing optimism about the short-term future.

The healthcare-reform bill promised to dramatically expand coverage for Americans, but healthcare consumer confidence hasn’t necessarily kept up, according to data released Monday by Thomson Reuters.